Friday, May 27, 2011

trading the breakouts


I follow a lot of blogs and I have discovered that breakout traders tend to make a common mistake. If they would avoid this one mistake, they might be able to consistently make money trading breakouts.

Take a look at the following scenario:






Quest Software (QSFT) has just broken out through the pivot point in a cup with handle pattern. But, if I were a breakout trader, I certainly would not have bought the breakout.

Why?

Because it has multiple up days prior to the breakout. Plus, there is an expansion of range on the last candle which is what you would typically see right before a reversal!


Is it possible that this stock will continue the breakout? Of course. But, possibilities are useless in stock trading. We deal in probabilities.

Here is a better breakout scenario:



This stock was trading sideways and then it suddenly broke out with one candle exploding through resistance. And, it closed near the top of the range. There no multiple up days prior to the breakout.

This is a much better scenario!


I don’t trade breakouts. But, if I did, I would look for exploding candles that do not have multiple up days prior the breakout.

Forward this blog post to anyone that you know who trades breakouts. Then watch their eyes light up when they realize what they have been doing wrong!


from:http://www.learnswingtrading.com/swing-trading-tips/dont-make-this-mistake-if-you-are-going-to-trade-breakouts/

Thursday, May 26, 2011

canslim

Born in Oklahoma and raised in Texas, William O’Neil has accomplished a lot over his 53-year professional career. After graduating from Southern Methodist University, O’Neil started his career as a stock broker in the late-1950s. Soon thereafter in 1963, at the ripe young age of 30, O’Neil purchased a seat on the New York Stock Exchange (NYX) and started his own company, William O’Neil + Co. Incorporated. Ambition has never been in short supply for O’Neil – following the creation of his firm, O’Neil the investment guru put on his computer science hat and went onto pioneer the field of computerized investment databases. He used his unique proprietary data as a foundation to unveil his next entrepreneurial baby, Investor’s Business Daily, in 1984.

O’Neil’s Secret Sauce

The secret sauce behind O’Neil’s system is called CAN SLIM®. O’Neil isn’t a huge believer in stock diversification, so he primarily focuses on the cream of the crop stocks in upward trending markets. Here are the components of CAN SLIM® that he searches for in winning stocks:

C Current Quarterly Earnings per Share

A Annual Earnings Increases

N New Products, New Management, New Highs

S Supply and Demand

L Leader or Laggard

I Institutional Sponsorship

M Market Direction

Rebel without a Conventional Cause

In hunting for the preeminent stocks in the market, the CAN SLIM® method uses a blend of fundamental and technical factors to weed out the best of the best. I may not agree with everything O’Neil says in his book, How to Make Money in Stocks,but what I love about the O’Neil doctrine is his maverick disregard of the accepted modern finance status quo. Here is a list of O’Neil’s non-conforming quotes:

  • Valuation Doesn’t Matter: “The most successful stocks from 1880 to the present show that, contrary to most investors’ beliefs, P/E ratios were not a relevant factor in price movement and have very little to do with whether a stock should be bought or sold.” (see also The Fallacy of High P/Es)
  • Diversification is Bad: “Broad diversification is plainly and simply a hedge for ignorance… The best results are usually achieved through concentration, by putting your eggs in a few baskets that you know well and watching them very carefully.”
  • Buy High then Buy Higher: “[Buy more] only after the stock has risen from your purchase price, not after it has fallen below it.”
  • Dollar-Cost Averaging a Mistake: “If you buy a stock at $40, then buy more at $30 and average out your cost at $35, you are following up your losers and throwing good money after bad. This amateur strategy can produce serious losses and weigh down your portfolio with a few big losers.”
  • Technical Analysis Matters: “Learn to read charts and recognize proper bases and exact buy points. Use daily and weekly charts to materially improve your stock selection and timing.”
  • Ignore TV & So-Called Experts: “Stop listening to and being influenced by friends, associates, and the continuous array of experts’ personal opinions on daily TV shows.”
  • Stay Away from Dividends: “Most people should not buy common stocks for their dividends or income, yet many people do.”

Managing Momentum Risk

Finally, O’Neil always keeps a safety apparatus close by – I like to call it the 8% financial fire extinguisher rule. O’Neil simply states, “Investors should definitely set firm rules limiting the loss on the initial capital they have invested in each to an absolute maximum of 7% or 8%.” If a trade is not working, O’Neil wants you to quickly cut your losses.


The above content is taken from this post in the Investing Caffein Blog